Sustainability and Social Justice

Assessing water security under climate change in the Mexico–Lerma–Cutzamala region through system dynamics modeling

Document Type

Article

Abstract

Urban water scarcity is intensifying in rapidly growing megacities that depend on distant surface and groundwater sources exposed to climate variability. This study applies a system dynamics model to the Mexico Lerma Cutzamala Hydrological Region, which supplies the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, to assess water security under SSP245 and SSP585 climate scenarios through 2050. The model links population growth, land use change, groundwater extraction, reservoir operations, inter basin transfers, and distribution losses in seven interconnected basins. Model performance is evaluated against observed population, land cover, groundwater levels, and reservoir storage for 1992 to 2020, with low maximum relative errors and high correlations for major stocks, which supports the use of the model for exploratory scenario analysis. Under current allocation practices, per capita domestic supply in the metropolitan area declines from about 225 L per person per day in 1992 to 118 L in 2050, and to less than 70 L once distribution losses of 40 percent are considered. Groundwater storage in the Mexico and Lerma basins falls in all scenarios, while Cutzamala reservoirs frequently approach minimum operating levels and experience zero outflow events, especially under SSP585. These results indicate increasing risk of systemic failure driven by coupled social and hydro climatic stressors. The analysis highlights leakage reduction, conjunctive management of surface water and groundwater, and diversification of supply through reuse and decentralized capture as priority leverage points for adaptive governance in Mexico City and other water stressed megacities. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2026.

Publication Title

Sustainable Water Resources Management

Publication Date

4-2026

Volume

12

Issue

2

ISSN

2363-5037

DOI

10.1007/s40899-026-01327-7

Keywords

inter-basin water transfers, Mexico City metropolitan area, sustainable water resources, system dynamics modeling, urban water management, water security

Cross Post Location

Geography

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