The Effect of Energy Consumption, Income, and Population Growth on CO2 Emissions: Evidence from NARDL and Machine Learning Models

Authors

Mansoor Ahmed, Software Engineering Institute of Guangzhou
Wen Huan, Software Engineering Institute of Guangzhou
Nafees Ali, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ahsan Shafi, China University of Geosciences Wuhan
Muhsan Ehsan, Bahria School of Engineering and Applied Sciences
Kamal Abdelrahman, King Saud University
Saiq Shakeel Abbasi, Tyche Consultants (SMC)
Anser Ali Khan, Clark University
Mohammed S. Fnais, King Saud University

Document Type

Article

Abstract

With population and income growth, the need for energy has increased in developing and emerging economies, which has inevitably led to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂e). This paper investigates the impact of energy consumption on CO₂e influenced by population growth, energy consumption per capita, and income. In particular, this paper investigates whether or not an increase in energy consumption, energy intensity, energy consumption per capita, population growth, and income impacts CO₂e in China, India, and the USA. The study applied the non-linear Autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and machine learning techniques. We found a significant impact of energy consumption per capita on the CO₂ emissions in China, India, and USA. Furthermore, the results revealed that, when income increased, CO₂ emissions increased in India, but decreased in the USA. The results confirmed that population growth increases CO₂ emissions only in India. The results revealed that a decrease in energy intensity significantly improves the environmental quality in China and India. Finally, we forecasted the CO₂e trend from 2017 to 2025. The results revealed an upcoming increase in CO₂e levels in China and India. Conversely, the forecasted results demonstrated a downward trend of CO₂e emissions in the USA.

Publication Title

Sustainability (Switzerland)

Publication Date

8-2023

Volume

15

Issue

15

ISSN

2071-1050

DOI

10.3390/su151511956

Keywords

China, CO2 emission, energy consumption, India, machine learning models, NARDL, USA

Repository Citation

Ahmed, Mansoor; Huan, Wen; Ali, Nafees; Shafi, Ahsan; Ehsan, Muhsan; Abdelrahman, Kamal; Abbasi, Saiq Shakeel; Khan, Anser Ali; and Fnais, Mohammed S., "The Effect of Energy Consumption, Income, and Population Growth on CO2 Emissions: Evidence from NARDL and Machine Learning Models" (2023). Student Publications. 22.
https://commons.clarku.edu/student_publications/22

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Copyright Conditions

Publisher source must be acknowledged with citation: Ahmed, M., Huan, W., Ali, N., Shafi, A., Ehsan, M., Abdelrahman, K., ... & Fnais, M. S. (2023). The effect of energy consumption, income, and population growth on CO2 emissions: evidence from NARDL and machine learning models. Sustainability, 15(15), 11956.