Prioritization of Research on Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate

Authors

Joel Lisonbee, University of Colorado Boulder
Britt Parker, NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System
Erica Fleischman, Oregon State University
Trent W. Ford, University of Illinois
Kyle R. Bocinsky, University of Montana
Gretel Follingstad, University of Colorado Boulder
Abby Frazier, Clark UniversityFollow
Zachary H. Hoylman, University of Montana
Amy R. Hudson, USDA-ARS
John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University
Natalie A. Umphlett, Cornell University
Elliot Wickham, South Carolina Department of Natural Resources
Aparna Bamzai-Dodson, U.S. Geological Survey
Royce Fontenot, NOAA/NWS National Water Center,
Brian Fuchs, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
John Hammond, U.S. Geological Survey
Jeffrey E. Herrick, Jornada Experimental Range
Mike Hobbins, University of Colorado Boulder
Andrew Hoell, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
Jacob Jones, University of California
Erin Lane, USDA Forest Service
Zachary Leasor, University of Missouri
Yongqiang Liu, Center for Forest Disturbance Science
Jason A. Otkin, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Dennis Todey, USDA Midwest Climate Hub USDA-ARS National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment
Roger Pulwarty, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

Document Type

Article

Abstract

Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather that leads to hydrological imbalance. Drought assessments determine the characteristics, severity, and impacts of a drought. Climate change adds conceptual and quantitative challenges to traditional drought assessments. This paper highlights the challenges of assessing drought in a climate made non-stationary by human activities or natural variability. To address these challenges, we then identify 10 key research priorities for advancing drought science and improving assessments in a changing climate. The priorities focus on improving drought indicators to account for non-stationarity, evaluating drought impacts and their trends, addressing regional differences in non-stationarity, determining the physical drivers of drought and how they are changing, capturing precipitation variability, and understanding the drivers of aridification. Ultimately, improved drought assessments will inform better risk management, adaptation strategies, and planning, especially in areas where climate change significantly alters drought dynamics. This perspective offers a path toward more accurate and effective drought management in a non-stationary climate system.

Publication Title

Earth's Future

Publication Date

3-2025

Volume

13

Issue

3

ISSN

2328-4277

DOI

10.1029/2024EF005276

Keywords

climate change, drought, non-stationarity, research priorities

Repository Citation

Lisonbee, Joel; Parker, Britt; Fleischman, Erica; Ford, Trent W.; Bocinsky, Kyle R.; Follingstad, Gretel; Frazier, Abby; Hoylman, Zachary H.; Hudson, Amy R.; Nielsen-Gammon, John W.; Umphlett, Natalie A.; Wickham, Elliot; Bamzai-Dodson, Aparna; Fontenot, Royce; Fuchs, Brian; Hammond, John; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Hobbins, Mike; Hoell, Andrew; Jones, Jacob; Lane, Erin; Leasor, Zachary; Liu, Yongqiang; Otkin, Jason A.; Todey, Dennis; and Pulwarty, Roger, "Prioritization of Research on Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate" (2025). Geography. 998.
https://commons.clarku.edu/faculty_geography/998

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Copyright Conditions

Lisonbee, J., Parker, B., Fleishman, E., Ford, T. W., Bocinsky, R. K., Follingstad, G., ... & Pulwarty, R. (2025). Prioritization of research on drought assessment in a changing climate. Earth's Future, 13(3), e2024EF005276.