Geography
Modelling spatial and temporal patterns of tropical land use change
Abstract
We developed two spatially explicit models to simulate rates and patterns of tropical land use change. These models also calculate total amounts and spatial distributions of the carbon content and carbon dioxide exchange resulting from deforestation and other land use changes. We use two basic approaches: hypothesis deduction (GEOMOD1) and statistical deduction (GEOMOD2). The hypothesis deduction approach for selecting pattern drivers is based on user-supplied assumptions about how people actually use land. The statistical deduction approach analyses historical patterns of land use change and compares them to user-supplied map layers of physical and cultural attributes. The model then chooses drivers based on the best fit of the patterns. We used digitized and remotely sensed data for Southeast Asia and Africa to test these models. -from Authors
