Recent temperature and precipitation increases in West Siberia and their association with the Arctic Oscillation

Authors

Karen E. Frey, University of California, Los Angeles
Laurence C. Smith, University of California, Los Angeles

Document Type

Article

Abstract

Surface air temperature and precipitation records for the years 1958-1999 from ten meteorological stations located throughout West Siberia are used to identify climatic trends and determine to what extent these trends are potentially attributable to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Although recent changes in atmospheric variability are associated with broad Arctic climate change, West Siberia appears particularly susceptible to warming. Furthermore, unlike most of the Arctic, moisture transport in the region is highly variable. The records show that West Siberia is experiencing significant warming and notable increases in precipitation, likely driven, in part, by large-scale Arctic atmospheric variability. Because this region contains a large percentage of the world's peatlands and contributes a significant portion of the total terrestrial freshwater flux to the Arctic Ocean, these recent climatic trends may have globally significant repercussions. The most robust patterns found are strong and prevalent springtime warming, winter precipitation increases, and strong association of non-summer air temperatures with the AO. Warming rates for both spring (0.5 - 0.8 °C/decade) and annual (0.3 - 0.5 °C/decade) records are statistically significant for nine of ten stations. On average, the AO is linearly congruent with 96 % (winter), 19 % (spring), 0 % (summer), 67 % (autumn) and 53 % (annual) of the warming found in this study. Significant trends in precipitation occur most commonly during winter, when four of ten stations exhibit significant increases (4 - 13 %/decade . The AO may play a lesser role in precipitation variability and is linearly congruent with only 17 % (winter), 13 % (spring), 12 % (summer , 1 % (autumn) and 26 % (annual) of precipitation trends.

Publication Title

Polar Research

Publication Date

1-1-2003

Volume

22

Issue

2

First Page

287

Last Page

300

ISSN

0800-0395

DOI

10.1111/j.1751-8369.2003.tb00113.x

Keywords

Arctic Oscillation, West Siberia, Arctic Ocean

Repository Citation

Frey, Karen E. and Smith, Laurence C., "Recent temperature and precipitation increases in West Siberia and their association with the Arctic Oscillation" (2003). Geography. 255.
https://commons.clarku.edu/faculty_geography/255