Geography

Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA

Document Type

Article

Abstract

Scientists need a better and larger set of tools to validate land-use change models, because it is essential to know a model's prediction accuracy. This paper describes how to use the relative operating characteristic (ROC) as a quantitative measurement to validate a land-cover change model. Typically, a crucial component of a spatially explicit simulation model of land-cover change is a map of suitability for land-cover change, for example a map of probability of deforestation. The model usually selects locations for new land-cover change at locations that have relatively high suitability. The ROC can compare a map of actual change to maps of modeled suitability for land-cover change. ROC is a summary statistic derived from several two-by-two contingency tables, where each contingency table corresponds to a different simulated scenario of future land-cover change. The categories in each contingency table are actual change and actual non-change versus simulated change and simulated non-change. This paper applies the theoretical concepts to a model of deforestation in the Ipswich watershed, USA. © 2001 Elsevier Science B.V.

Publication Title

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment

Publication Date

6-1-2001

Volume

85

Issue

1-3

First Page

239

Last Page

248

ISSN

0167-8809

DOI

10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00187-6

Keywords

land cover, LUCC, ROC, simulation model, suitability map, validation

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