A framework for food reliability in Zambia

Authors

• Junren Wang, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• Megan Konar, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• Sitian Xiong, Clark University

Document Type

Article

Abstract

Ensuring the reliability of domestic food supplies is increasingly critical given the compounding shocks of production variability, transportation constraints, and demand surges. This study develops a spatially explicit framework for Zambia, introducing the food reliability index to quantify the probability that food requirements exceed supply under stochastic conditions. By integrating probabilistic production estimates with a gravity model of domestic trade, we evaluate reliability dynamics across rural and urban landscapes. We apply this framework to establish a 2020 baseline and project future vulnerabilities to 2050. To address projected deficits, we simulate intervention scenarios, comparing the efficacy of cropland expansion, yield intensification, and transportation cost reductions. The resulting framework provides decision-makers with a tool to identify spatial imbalances and prioritize investments for enhancing food supply resilience. © 2026 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.

Publication Title

Environmental Research: Food Systems

Publication Date

3-2026

Volume

3

Issue

1

ISSN

2976-601X

DOI

10.1088/2976-601X/ae487d

Keywords

demand, food flows, food reliability, production, scenarios, transportation, Zambia

Repository Citation

Wang, Junren; Konar, Megan; and Xiong, Sitian, "A framework for food reliability in Zambia" (2026). Student Publications [Scholarly]. 90.
https://commons.clarku.edu/student_publications/90

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Copyright Conditions

Wang, J., Konar, M., & Xiong, S. (2026). A framework for food reliability in Zambia. Environmental Research: Food Systems, 3(1), 011001.