Drought as an emergent driver of ecological transformation in the twenty-first century

Authors

Wynne E. Moss, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center
Shelley D. Crausbay, The USDA Forest Service
Imtiaz Rangwala, The North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center
Jay W. Wason, University of Maine
Clay Trauernicht, University of Hawaii, Manoa
Camille S. Stevens-Rumann, Colorado State University
Anna Sala, The University Of Montana
Caitlin M. Rottler, University of Oklahoma
Gregory T. Pederson, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center
Brian W. Miller, North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center
Dawn R. Magness, Kenai National Wildlife Refuge
Jeremy S. Littell, Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center
Lee E. Frelich, The University Of Montana
Abby Frazier, Clark UniversityFollow
Kimberly T. Davis, The University Of Montana
Jonathan D. Coop, Western Colorado University
Jennifer M. Cartwright, Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center
Robert K. Booth, Lehigh University

Document Type

Article

Abstract

Under climate change, ecosystems are experiencing novel drought regimes, often in combination with stressors that reduce resilience and amplify drought's impacts. Consequently, drought appears increasingly likely to push systems beyond important physiological and ecological thresholds, resulting in substantial changes in ecosystem characteristics persisting long after drought ends (i.e., ecological transformation). In the present article, we clarify how drought can lead to transformation across a wide variety of ecosystems including forests, woodlands, and grasslands. Specifically, we describe how climate change alters drought regimes and how this translates to impacts on plant population growth, either directly or through drought's interactions with factors such as land management, biotic interactions, and other disturbances. We emphasize how interactions among mechanisms can inhibit postdrought recovery and can shift trajectories toward alternate states. Providing a holistic picture of how drought initiates long-term change supports the development of risk assessments, predictive models, and management strategies, enhancing preparedness for a complex and growing challenge.

Publication Title

BioScience

Publication Date

8-1-2024

Volume

74

Issue

8

First Page

524

Last Page

538

ISSN

0006-3568

DOI

10.1093/biosci/biae050

Keywords

climate change, disturbance, drought, ecological transformation, vegetation shift

Repository Citation

Moss, Wynne E.; Crausbay, Shelley D.; Rangwala, Imtiaz; Wason, Jay W.; Trauernicht, Clay; Stevens-Rumann, Camille S.; Sala, Anna; Rottler, Caitlin M.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Miller, Brian W.; Magness, Dawn R.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Frelich, Lee E.; Frazier, Abby; Davis, Kimberly T.; Coop, Jonathan D.; Cartwright, Jennifer M.; and Booth, Robert K., "Drought as an emergent driver of ecological transformation in the twenty-first century" (2024). Geography. 983.
https://commons.clarku.edu/faculty_geography/983

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Copyright Conditions

Published source must be acknowledged with citation: Moss, W. E., Crausbay, S. D., Rangwala, I., Wason, J. W., Trauernicht, C., Stevens-Rumann, C. S., ... & Booth, R. K. (2024). Drought as an emergent driver of ecological transformation in the twenty-first century. BioScience, 74(8), 524-538. Must link to published version with DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biae050